A Tale of Two Statisticians

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Dean Chambers fifteen-minutes-of-fame ended somewhere around October 1, 2012, after Drudge, Rush Limbaugh, the Breitbartlets and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas worked themselves into a lather over his wingnut-site UnskewedPolls.com, had an afterglow cigarette and then moved on.  Chambers is either the PT Barnum of Politics (there’s a conservative born every minute . . . ) or quite delusional—or maybe a little of both.

The reason that someone like Dean Chambers can not only “break through” but also become a “rock star” in the Conserva-sphere is because movement conservatives clearly don’t place much value on reality, facts or even soft data.  When Chambers came along with a handy biased-pollsters conspiracy theory and a contrived method for weighting existing polls that made the numbers look like “Romney in a Landslide,” he was a hero.

At any rate, while his star was in the ascendant, Chambers decided that what the world of conservatives needed was more “unskew-ing,” so UnskewedMedia.com and UnskewedPolitics.com were added to Chambers’ Examiner web-empire.  And just for well-roundedness, Chambers added a humor page for a little comic relief, which he warns won’t last long because Willard will soon win the election and bad photoshops of Obama and Nancy Pelosi will no longer be uproariously funny.

Somewhere along this path, Chambers, himself, became convinced that he is a bona-fide go-to pollster and all-round serious person and, as such, he recently vented a little professional jealousy by going-off on Nate Silver for being too effeminate (gay) to be accurate. Not kidding . . . .

While many conservatives look to former Clinton political consultant Dick Morris to understand the polls and political surveys on the elections, or even a site like UnSkewedPolls.com, those on the left look to New York Times blogger Nate Silver.

Dick Morris? seriously?

Silver currently writes about the polls and politics at a web site called FiveThirtyEight.com that is affiliated with the New York Times. His currect (sic) projections of the presidential race look quite favorable to the incumbent, President Obama, both nationally and especially in the swing states. Routinely he assigns percentage odds of a candidate (usually his beloved Obama) winning a state far higher and disproportionate any (sic) reasonable odds of that candidate winning a state as indicated by the polls.

When Chambers gets going on a rant he is typo-prone (or English-challenged) . . .

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he’s made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

He claims to have been highly accurate in predicting the 2008 election results, and perhaps he was. But it’s highly unlikely his current methods and projections will have the level of accuracy unless he changes then quite a lot between now and election day. The race has shifted profoundly in favor of Mitt Romney while Nate Sillver is still projecting an Obama win. Unless he changes that, the credibility he earned in 2008 will be greatly diminished after this years election.

In case you aren’t familiar with Nate Silver, here are a few actual substantiated facts about Nate from Wikipedia:

Nathaniel Read “Nate” Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, sabermetrician, psephologist, and writer. In 2000, Silver graduated with Honors with an A.B. degree in economics from the University of Chicago.  He spent his third year at the London School of Economics.

Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.

In 2007, writing under the pseudonym “Poblano”, Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election. At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com. By summer of that year, after he revealed his identity to his readers, he began to appear as an electoral and political analyst in national print, online, and cable news media.

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.

In April 2009, he was named one of The World’s 100 Most Influential People by Time.

In 2010, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog was licensed for publication by The New York Times. The newly renamed blog, FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver’s Political Calculus, first appeared in The Times on August 25, 2010. In 2012, FiveThirtyEight won a Webby Award as the “Best Political Blog” from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences.

(Maybe, if Nate Silver added a Humor Page to his blog, Republicans would take him more seriously . . . ?)

Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise was published in September 2012.

Also, since Out magazine included Silver on its list of the top 100 LGBT people of the year, in 2010, I doubt that having Dean Chambers telling his seventeen regular readers that Silver is gay is going to be the soul-crushing experience that he and most Republicans believe it to be.

Unfortunately, Mr Chambers doesn’t have a Wikipedia entry (yet), and Nate Silver hasn’t written anything about him, so we must rely on Chambers’ Examiner page auto-bio:

Dean Chambers, an Internet journalist and commentator, launched his writing career by creating an alternative conservative student newspaper while in college. Dean grew up in what James A. Baker called “the Peoples Republic of Massachusetts” and has experienced first-hand the fruits of progressive public policy. Look to Dean’s writings to find a uniquely individualist point of view focusing on limited government, individual liberty, and conservative values.

Hmmmm. . .  who to believe?  The University of Chicago and London School of Economics trained statistician and award-winning wonk with a regular writing gig at The New York Times?  who also happens to be considered one of the top 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine?

Or the graduate of the Republican School of Wishful Thinking? Drudge-buddy with an honorable mention by Rushbo and a Writing-for-$$$s gig at Examiner.com?

You be the judge . . .  but me? I agree with Colbert . . .

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Posted by Bette Noir on 10/28/12 at 01:12 PM • Permalink

Categories: PoliticsBarack ObamaBedwettersElection '12MittensNuttersOur Stupid Media

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Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound.


I hardly think the Pillsbury Doughboy’s less-attractive older brother has any right to be making snide judgments about anyone else’s appearance.

... many conservatives look to former Clinton political consultant Dick Morris to understand the polls and political surveys on the elections ...

This here tells you everything you need to know ... well, about everything.

Soon the whole world will be able to judge the presumably ultra-ultra-butch Dean Chambers’ take on reality versus the blatantly ghey stats Nate Silver so effetely aggregates and does his ghey modely thing with every day.

All things considered, I don’t really want to live in Dean Chambers’ world. Luckily, there’s a vanishingly small chance I’m going to have to.

On the other hand, unless he’s a fabrication of Rush Limbaugh’s fevered imagination and a particularly sick pirated version of Photoshop,  the day after the election Dean Chambers will still be Dean Chambers. He and Dick Morris should be very happy together.

Jesus, I miss everything.  Nate Silver is gay?

Yeah, I didn’t know he was gay, either, but his photo in that OUT issue is cute.

Comment by Comrade Mary on 10/28/12 at 04:28 PM

So, does this make baseball “gay” too?

He claims to have been highly accurate in predicting the 2008 election results, and perhaps he was.

If only there were some way to find out!

Contards don’t really do research, do they.

So, does this make baseball “gay” too?

Wait’ll Chambers finds out about Alan Turing. He’ll go offline and start distributing his screeds via mimeograph.

So, does this make baseball “gay” too?

Depends on how you handle the bat and balls.

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