Best Virginia

After reading panicked comments from Hillary West Virginia phonebankers at various anti-Obama blogs ("they think it’s over!") and John Cole’s canvassing report below, I think Hillary’s predicted margin of victory in West Virginia (30-40%) is vastly inflated. I’m going to go out on a limb and say she’ll only win by 13%:

Just finished walking my precinct, going door to door doing the GOTV for the Obama campaign, and I have to tell you, I am impressed with the level of organization. I was given a packet that included google maps, lists of supporters names, addresses, and how they are trending (strong supporter, undecided, etc.), literature to hand to people with the address of the precinct polling place and time the polls open, and literature to place on the door knob should they not be home.

I fully expect Hillary to win tomorrow, but I don’t think we are going to see a 40 point or whatever margin. At least I hope not. I can tell you this, however- Barack’s support here may not be as broad as Hillary’s, but it is deep. The people I spoke to were all folks like me- crawl-over-glass voters. They would, to a person, crawl over glass to pull the lever for Obama tomorrow. No one needed to be told when the polls were opening tomorrow, they knew. No one needed to be told where to go, they knew where they had to be tomorrow to vote.

I don’t know if this is simply a result of my lists being highly refined after weeks months of phone-banking, and I don’t know if there is a similar such level of organization or commitment on the Clinton side, but I can tell you that the people I visited were extremely motivated. On several occasions (three, to be exact), people were fielding phone calls from the Obama campaign while I was at the door. Additionally, I have personally received multiple calls from the Obama, yet have not received so much as a mailer from Clinton. As I am a newly registered Democrat with accurate phone and address on my registration, I thought at the very least the Clinton campaign would call or mail something.

MORE: Tonight I’m either going to look like the dumbest person in the blogosphere or the smartest.  If I were you, I’d put money on “dumbest.”

Posted by Kevin K. on 05/13/08 at 07:11 AM • Permalink

I hope you’re right, but I think it’ll be more in the range of a 20% to 25% margin. It doesn’t matter, though. If Clinton wins every remaining contest 80% to 20%, she still can’t catch up. What’ll be interesting is to see how the media spin it. Will a big Clinton victory plunge them all back into the drama narrative? Maybe. It’s good for ratings, after all.

I imagine the MSM is salivating at the prospect of announcing “Obama can’t win white voters!  Clinton campaign invigorated by -angry- working white voters!” No doubt the analysis will be accurate, complete and thoughtful.

I personally think the numbers of voters coming out will be down.  The gastax debacle for hillary I believe will pay continued dividends for Obama.  Many West Virginians don’t like being played for stupid.  Many of them are staunchly anti-Clinton in a demonstrably red state.  The MSM has convieniently overlooked the republican hatred for her as well.

How difficult is it for WVirginians to cross over and vote Dem?

My mom, a native West Virginian, was talking to her sister who still lives there. They were raised in a Democratic household and my grandparents were not racists. Mom was shocked when her sister said, “I’ll never vote for a black man.”

I was appalled, too. It’s a side of my family I’ve never seen until now, and it makes me wonder how many people, under the anonymity of the voting booth, will be voting as racists.