All this talk of change. Change here, change there, change, change, change. Can I just get some dollar bills instead? Like, a lot of them?

Yeah, still on the ledge here. Part of that is because I’ve heard “There’s a lot going on behind the scenes” before.

Certainly, the Palin bounce is over. She’ll end up as “cool” as a Segway or a Beanie Baby. I’m thinking McCain will give over another couple of points nationally by the end of the week.

I worry a bit about The Bradley Effect though as I work out all the numbers. When a certain percentage of white voters get in the booths in November, they’ll leave behind what they’ve told pollsters.

In California’s 1982 Gubernatorial Election, all polls showed that LA Mayor Tom Bradley (an African American) would coast. He lost eight points between the final polls and the vote. Some lizardy Greek dude whose name I don’t care to spell correctly beat him by several percentage points.

And remember: 1982 was a good year for Democratic turn-out.

Obama’s Bradley Number? I’m guessing about two percent. Any thoughts?

Part of that is because I’ve heard “There’s a lot going on behind the scenes” before.

Yeah, but with who? Kerry? Gore? Both of them didn’t have anything approaching the enthusiasm or organization we’ve seen from Obama’s team and supporters. There’s just no comparison.

I worry a bit about The Bradley Effect though

The difference this year is that they can identify themselves as Clinton supporters in a polling scenario and walk away w/out being worried about being labeled a racist. I think any Dems who will vote against him for that reason are, for the most part, getting picked up in polling. 2% is a good, high estimate to go with.

I’d think that video has got to worry the McCain camp if they watch it.  The timing is perfect, too.

Here’s an interesting take on Obama’s ground game ...

Yeah, but with who? Kerry? Gore? Both of them didn’t have anything approaching the enthusiasm or organization we’ve seen from Obama’s team and supporters. There’s just no comparison.

*Mentally puts Obama on the same stage as Kerry and Gore*

You know, you’re right. That’s a strong point. You may have saved me having to buy another bottle of bourbon tonight.

I worry a bit about The Bradley Effect though as I work out all the numbers.

I agree with Kevin that a lot of the “Bradley Effect” voters are using Hillary this time to hide behind and have openly said they wouldn’t vote for Obama.  I think they’re called PUMA’s this year. ;)

I also honestly don’t think the polls are taking into account all the new voters and the youth vote which seems to be overwhelmingly for Obama and, in my opinion, most younger people aren’t going to be part of the “Bradley Effect” the way their parents and grandparents were.  I know the expected “youth vote” turnout didn’t materialize in 2004 but it’s different with Barack.  Teens and young adults are a big part of the grassroots campaign.