The Stakes

The O.M.G. victory of Scott Brown over Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts special senatorial election has turned the health care reform debate on its head. In this parallel universe in which we live these days where a majority equals 60% if the Senate is involved, and the Dems barely had that majority, it’s been a game changer. Bill-Killers (both progressive and conservative) are rejoicing, liberals are holding their heads and who knows what moderate Dem senators are thinking. (Yay, for us, we did this?)

The plan being floated most frequently is for the House to pass the Senate bill as is and then put in some fixes through reconciliation. Not everyone is on board with that plan.

In fact what House liberals seem to be doing is taking their ball and going home.

“We cannot support the Senate bill — period,” is the message that liberals delivered to the Speaker, Dem Rep Raul Grijalva told me in an interview just now.

All in all a big legislative mess right now. Some (including people on this very blog) have said that Obama was too ambitious in taking on health care reform in his first year - that he should have focused more on jobs and put health care on the back, or at least the middle, burner for now.

I just don’t know how you explain that to these people though. How do you language that? “Sure we value your lives, folks, but we have political capital to consider.”

No, I think Obama and the Democratic Congress did the right thing in trying to push this forward early on. Where I think they erred was in totally underestimating the sheer ability of the tea-bagging right wingers* to throw tantrums, lie on the ground, scream and pound their heels. And disrupt town hall meetings. And throw out fear mongering campaigns. (Maybe we have a new political term now - that legislation has been “death paneled”. It’ll never pass now.) By the time it became clear what was happening the bedwetters had gotten control of the message. And their antics had totally struck fear into the hearts of all Republicans and many Democrats.

So where do we go from here? I know I advocated dumping the plan and starting over with something simpler a couple of days ago but since then I’ve slept, I’ve looked away from politics, I’ve let things sort themselves out inside.

And I don’t know the answer. I don’t have one. I’m just not the kind who always knows exactly what we need to do (or not to do) to resolve the problem. And, honestly, I’m not sure most people claiming that they do really have such great ideas or they just like thinking that they do.

What I do know is that the stakes are too high. People are dying because they don’t have access to affordable health care. Tens of thousands of people every year. And that doesn’t even consider the people living with greatly reduced quality of life because of chronic health issues that they can’t afford to treat. In America. In the United States of America people are dying because health care is a product for sale and not a vested right.

We’re too close to the goal line now. We need to figure out some way to shove that ball across.

*And that pretty much describes every Republican politician these days.

UPDATE: These guys think so too.

Posted by marindenver on 01/22/10 at 07:30 PM • Permalink

Categories: Politics • Barack Obama • Bedwetters • Editorials • Health Care • Nutters • Skull Hampers •

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Right on, marindenver. But this business of getting over an initial emotional reaction and admitting that you don’t know exactly what should happen next is grown up talk and there’s no place for it on the internet.

Comment by Lawnguylander on 01/23/10 at 08:46 AM

The supreme irony of it is, the special election was held in a state that has universal coverage by way of very similar mechanisms that are being proposed in the senate bill. Brown didn’t run on rolling that back, but rather protecting Massachusetts from having to pony up for providing the rest of us with something they already have.

I don’t know what the answer is either, but it seems that this is one of those rare cases in which the common good and political expediency converge. The House Dems must know that if they go home empty-handed after spending a year on this initiative, it’ll make them look like weak, ineffectual fools. They can’t run from the whole effort because they’re already on record as having voted for a HCR bill.

Therefore, my guess is they’ll pass something. Either the Senate bill or something even more compromised.

Also, I’ve seen a lot of screaming and jumping up and down about Obama’s lack of leadership on the issue—not just from the usual suspects, but from respected, sensible folks like Krugman. I think that’s premature.

How many times during the campaign were we Obama supporters pulling our hair out and muttering about Obama needing to be more aggressive in staking out his position and addressing the attacks against him? I know I felt that way many times.

And every single time, he came out and confronted the issue forthrightly and addressed it in a reasoned, compelling, effective manner that made all the screeching and Chicken Littlism look like amateur hour.

I don’t know if Obama has another “Chill the fuck out—I’ve got this” moment tucked away in his pocket. But he sure has a stage for it—the state of the union address. And he sure has wonderful timing for it, what with the Supreme Court putting a “for sale” sign on Congress and the insurance companies and banks posting obscene profits. I’m not counting him out.

Comment by Betty Cracker on 01/23/10 at 08:53 AM

I called every Democratic member of the Illinois Congressional delegation yesterday and told them I wanted the House to pass the Senate bill. (Schakowsky is my rep, but I figured it couldn’t hurt to remind the others that we’re watching their vote on this and will keep it in mind if they run statewide in the future.) Not sure if it does any good, but all the staff I talked to were very nice. I used the “Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” line with somebody and he said “As we so often do,” so maybe enough of them will get it.

Meantime, I wish people would stop saying “reconiciliation” as if it’s a silver bullet. Last resort, I’m in favor of it, but it’s not at all sure that tougher insurance company regs (no rescission, no denial for preexisting conditions) would pass muster with the parliamentarian who has to rule on that stuff. Here’s Ezra’s excellent take on the Byrd Rule from last spring.

Comment by Oblomova on 01/23/10 at 12:53 PM

I think the only realistic option is for the House to hold their nose and pass the Senate bill and look towards ways of improving and fixing it later.

Any other option is more likely to result in nothing but even more extreme delay and dithering than we saw last year and nothing will happen except failure for the dems and healthcare.

Comment by G on 01/23/10 at 03:56 PM

It’s time to start over. It’s clear the American people do not support this endeavor.

Comment by LincolnLounger on 01/24/10 at 10:12 AM

It’s time to start over. It’s clear the American people do not ~~support~~ understand this endeavor.

Comment by Lawnguylander on 01/24/10 at 01:19 PM

That’s a good link Lawnguy. Just bolsters my belief that letting the right wing control the message was a huge mistake. A massive PR campaign to inform people of what the bills ACTUALLY WILL DO is badly needed.