Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Probably the best short analysis you’ll read comes from West Virginia resident Christy Hardin Smith of Firedoglake.  Someone in the comments at FDL asked Christy why she thought Hillary did so well and this was her reply:

Because she campaigned her ass off here, and Bill Clinton was really loved here a lot. She played to the homespun, religious, rural voters with a lot of respect and care in her appearances — genuine respect and care, from everything I saw and heard. And people loved it.

Obama barely campaigned here. It was as if WV didn’t exist until the last minute when he did a stop on Monday in Charleston. He had done two other drop-in speeches that I know of, but no retail politics at all. As in no door-to-door, town hall meeting type voter outreach. And that arms-length style is exactly what kicked Gore and Kerry’s asses here the last two election cycles.

Which, btw, I told several Obama people a while back. Voters here don’t feel like they know Obama at all — they at least got to know Clinton through her first lady years and again through her steady campaigning here for weeks. Plus, she had the bulk of the party leadership here in her corner early on — and they are all very loyal, very hard-working folks in terms of GOTV. Obama came off as uninterested in WV — and the vote shows exactly what folks in WV think about that. And I say that as someone who cast her vote for Obama today.

That’s pretty spot on.

Obama and his staff have run a brilliant campaign, but their handling of West Virginia wasn’t one of their better moments.  Sure, the numbers don’t add up for Hillary, but the narrative for the rest of the week will be how glorious it is that the tenacious Pantsuit Zombie has risen again and that white folks are growing increasingly uncomfortable with Obama (even though Indiana and North Carolina proved it was trending in the opposite direction). I never thought he had a chance in hell of winning there, but they should have tried a little harder to keep her margin of victory down to keep the pundits in check.

MORE: Kyle from Comments from Left Field looks at West Virginia and Travis Childers’ special election win in Mississippi. Maha has a nice roundup of salient factors in WV as well.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

After reading panicked comments from Hillary West Virginia phonebankers at various anti-Obama blogs ("they think it’s over!") and John Cole’s canvassing report below, I think Hillary’s predicted margin of victory in West Virginia (30-40%) is vastly inflated. I’m going to go out on a limb and say she’ll only win by 13%:

Just finished walking my precinct, going door to door doing the GOTV for the Obama campaign, and I have to tell you, I am impressed with the level of organization. I was given a packet that included google maps, lists of supporters names, addresses, and how they are trending (strong supporter, undecided, etc.), literature to hand to people with the address of the precinct polling place and time the polls open, and literature to place on the door knob should they not be home.

I fully expect Hillary to win tomorrow, but I don’t think we are going to see a 40 point or whatever margin. At least I hope not. I can tell you this, however- Barack’s support here may not be as broad as Hillary’s, but it is deep. The people I spoke to were all folks like me- crawl-over-glass voters. They would, to a person, crawl over glass to pull the lever for Obama tomorrow. No one needed to be told when the polls were opening tomorrow, they knew. No one needed to be told where to go, they knew where they had to be tomorrow to vote.

I don’t know if this is simply a result of my lists being highly refined after weeks months of phone-banking, and I don’t know if there is a similar such level of organization or commitment on the Clinton side, but I can tell you that the people I visited were extremely motivated. On several occasions (three, to be exact), people were fielding phone calls from the Obama campaign while I was at the door. Additionally, I have personally received multiple calls from the Obama, yet have not received so much as a mailer from Clinton. As I am a newly registered Democrat with accurate phone and address on my registration, I thought at the very least the Clinton campaign would call or mail something.

MORE: Tonight I’m either going to look like the dumbest person in the blogosphere or the smartest.  If I were you, I’d put money on “dumbest.”

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Taylor “Mushy” Marsh—Proud American

Someone emailed me this exceedingly entertaining press release and I figured I’d pass it on for a chuckle:

Expert Analyst on Clinton/Obama Political Scene Available for Interviews and Guest Appearances

National blog reporter, journalist and talk radio personality tackles provocative, complex and controversial election-year issues

FLORHAM PARK, N.J., May 5 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/—Taylor Marsh, a Clinton supporter who maintains the major blog site for Clinton fans, is
available for commentary and expert analysis on all election-year topics. She will be in Washington, D.C. on May 5, 6 and 7, 2008 for guest
appearances originating in Washington. Thereafter, Marsh is available via satellite or phone interviews from Los Angeles and Las Vegas.

Marsh is not afraid to tackle topics others shy away from. Among the many current issues she can discuss with clarity and astute reasoning are:

—Why Clinton can still win

—If Obama is the nominee, will Clinton supporters not vote, or will they become McCain Democrats?

—Media (and blog) coverage of Clinton, and why she and Obama are turning to Fox News Channel

Background

A former Miss Missouri in the Miss America pageant and Broadway performer, Taylor Marsh is a talk radio personality (her radio show streams daily online), national blog reporter and author who’s been a consistent political, social and cultural force on TV and radio for over 15 years. She focuses on political commentary, foreign policy and national security issues, but is a respected analyst on all things political as she turns to the 2008 elections with some of the best candidate and election commentary available. Her relationship and cultural expertise, with research and experience to back it up, rivals anyone. Her political expertise includes committed study and research into foreign affairs and military issues that has made her one of the few women talking about complex, international subjects.

On the web since 1996, Marsh shifted to blogging and blog reporting in late 2005, where her presence and impact have been explosive, though nothing prepared her for the Hillary hatred that would be unleashed in her direction in the 2008 primary season. [...]

So how’s the Mushy Goes to Washington/Look, Everybody Hates Me! publicity tour going? Ummm, not so well…

Taylor was set to appear on The Race w/ Adrienne Mitchell, on XM channel 130 starting between 8:30 and 8:45 ET tonight. Unfortunately, it had to be bumped in favor of a terrific election eve speech from our future Madame President. Understandable.

But do not despair… Taylor has already been invited to appear again very soon, so stay tuned…

Monday, May 05, 2008

It’s been disheartening to watch some fellow Dem bloggers shamelessly turn into Anti-Obama Rottweilers this primary season, but it’s downright depressing to see one of my favorite polisnarkers mutate into fucking Tonya Reiman:

If I were an Obama supporter, I’d spend less time making jokey parallels about yesterday’s Kentucky Derby and more time trying to defend/explain away the startling, unflattering contrast between Hillary and Obama on the Sunday morning talkshows: She, so commanding and “up” on ABC’s This Week; he, so slumped forward, beleagured-looking, and low-energy on NBC’s Meet the Press. Because he sure isn’t carrying himself with the aura of a winner.

Posted by: James Wolcott | May 04, 2008 at 11:55 AM

I don’t know how much more of this I can take.

I used to think the dumbest thing TalkLeft’s Jeralyn Merritt had ever done was admit to being friends with Jeff Goldstein, but now I’m not so sure:

How will [Barack Obama’s] time with his daughters be affected if he’s President? If Hillary had a young child and was running for President, there’d be scores of articles addressing this. Not that many decades ago, most men weren’t as involved in the day-to-day parenting of their kids. They were the principal breadwinners and not expected to be as involved as a mother.

Today, many men are as involved. Yet, no one mentions this with respect to Obama. If he’s President, he’ll be giving up a lot of family time. Is he still going to go to dance recitals, PTA meetings and soccer games? How often will he be able to help them with their homework? Will he have time to play charades and the other games they enjoy now?

As a husband Barack is not afraid to cook for his family. When he does, Michelle boasts that he makes a ‘mean’ chili, one of his favourite foods. Barack attests to picking up groceries even on the campaign trail in Iowa.

According to US Weekly, Barack and Michelle Obama have never missed a parent-teacher conference. Michelle posits that “Our future is making sure Barack can get to our daughters’ ballet recitals and balancing the demands of this current set of responsibilities with our need to build a strong family.” (Ebony, March 2006)

I’m curious. Does anyone have feelings about the time Obama’s daughters will lose with their father if he’s President or is this a non-issue?

It’s too bad manufacturing controversies can’t help the US economy, because Hillary’s supporters have far surpassed the wingnuts when it comes to throwing nonstick bullshit at the wall.

RELATED: Kyle E. Moore lets Jeralyn have it.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

I honestly don’t know if Barack Obama’s takedown of Rev. Jeremiah Wright today was a good move or a bad one (exceedingly precious time will tell), but newly-minted Democrat John Cole put the whole media-fueled debacle in ass-kicking perspective:

As to Wright himself, well, I have my own thoughts. First and foremost, I guess I am no longer the delicate fainting flower that most other bloggers and media commenters are these days. I spent several years in the early days of this blog being all sorts of outraged about petty bullshit. I spent days calling Ted Rall an asshole (he still is, I think), days opining about what an asshole Michael Moore is, and so on. I got my panties all in a bunch about Ward Churchhill (also a dick), and stupid things Bill Maher may or may not have said, and so on.

And you know what? They may be assholes, or jerks, or whatever term you want to use, but they sure as hell didn’t run this economy into the ground. They aren’t responsible for turning a huge surplus into a several hundred billion dollar deficit. I have yet to read any memos from Barbra Streisand detailing how we should spy on American citizens.

And so it is with Jeremiah Wright. Is he a jerk? I don’t think there is any argument to be made that lately he hasn’t in fact been one big, giant, puckered asshole. His ego tour the past few days was all about him, but so what? I blame the media as much as I blame him. Is it an offensive notion that the government created aids? Absolutely, but I refuse to get all bent out of shape about it, because the government that tortures people and ran the Tuskegee experiment and wiretapped MLK for years opens itself up to crazy accusations like that.

Read it all. And if you happen to be in close proximity to Joe Scarborough or Larry Johnson, please rub their fucking noses in it.

One thing that may shock a few people who have only started visiting Rumproast in the last few months is that one of the most heavily-trafficked posts I’ve written was one supporting Hillary Clinton against what I saw as unfair attacks by Chris Matthews.  I thought the media and Matthews in particular were willfully trying to dictate the outcome of the primaries and I found the piling on unseemly after Clinton suffered just one, albeit shocking, primary loss (Iowa). You couldn’t find one cable news channel that wasn’t declaring that Hillary was toast pre-New Hampshire and trying to yank the will of the people away from the electorate.

We’re now seeing the media pull the same stunt with Obama and their incessant and self-serving obsession with Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Once again, they’re manufacturing a controversy and flicking the auto-repeat switch to keep it wedged into as many news cycles as possible.  That beady-eyed butthead Joe Scarborough can’t got three seconds without barking out Wright’s name like a Tourette’s tic and, unfortunately, a majority of MSNBC’s hosts and anchors who follow him are nearly as bad. Many pro-Hillary bloggers have become even worse, cheering about how Wright is “the gift that keeps on giving” and plopping YouTube embed code for anti-Wright videos into every other of their posts.  There used to be a time when liberal blogs defended Democrats against repugnant and relentless intellectually dishonest media attacks, now it seems to be all the rage to not only endorse those attacks but to outdo them. The political blogosphere has become, in many ways, no better than mainstream media, if not worse.

So I’m giving a tip of the hat to pro-Hillary blogger Riverdaughter from The Confluence, who I’ve taken issue with before, for trying to inject a little sanity into the debate.  While she writes a few things in her “Whoa! The wheels are coming off Obama’s campaign” post and her follow-up comments I disagree with, overall she makes some very thoughtful and intelligent points regarding Wright and the media’s manipulation of what she refers to as a “manufactured scandal” that several pro-Hillary bloggers and supporters should take to heart. And if you’re an Obama supporter it may do you well to read her post and her comments and realize that there may be enough wood to build a bridge across the Great Divide regardless of how this fucking mess turns out.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Digby nails it:

I heard an interesting passing observation from John Harwood on MSNBC in which he more or less characterized Senator Obama’s campaign as a process “reform” campaign that may be losing a little steam as economic events overtake his theme of post partisan transcendence. I think there may be some truth in that. When Obama conceived of his campaign, political reform and ending the war in Iraq were the winning Democratic messages coming off of the 2006 election. (And it’s not to say that they are no longer issues at all; Iraq is certainly likely to take center stage again simply because it’s McCain’s white whale.) But some people are starting to get seriously worried about their own lives and when that happens they become skeptical that abstract assertions about “fixing Washington” is the way to fix their problems.

When Obama won Wisconsin, I assumed he had pulled together the Democratic coalition and that Texas and Ohio would prove that. But since that primary, events have overtaken his thematic campaign. Gas prices are rising dramatically. The stock market has been volatile. The housing market just gets worse. Working people are starting to get nervous (they are always much closer to financial ruin than the professional class.) His “change” campaign may seem a bit distant and abstract in the current circumstances. Unlike Perot, who ran as a reformer in a recessionary climate in 1992, Obama doesn’t have the decades of business experience to use as a proxy for successful economic stewardship, so he probably needs to be more explicit in his economic message now. (And while Perot got 20% of the vote, his reform message was never taken up --- it was his deficit message that penetrated. With the help of other rich powerful jackasses.)

This problem is correctable. Senator Obama probably needs to ramp up his personal energy, which has been flagging, (people need to believe the president is superhuman in times of stress) and start talking about bread and butter solutions with a touch of fiery populism. That’s where the mood is leading. It’s boring as hell to the media and the comfortable creative class types who are looking for something transcendent, but it’s what’s necessary at times like these.

Read it all.

And, as expected, Hillary’s ever-vigilant supporters immediately twisted Digby’s post into a flat-out endorsement of their candidate and a rejection of Obama, but she was having none of it:

What is wrong with people? I didn’t say one word about it being Hillary’s turn. Are you delusional?

I was trying to analyze why the coalition we all thought was coming together after Wisconsin hasn’t stuck. I’m going on the assumption that Obama’s the nominee and simply saying that I think he needs to change his message.

Jesus H. Christ. I can’t stand this willful inability to see anything in this primary except in terms of puerile cheerleading or slash and burn character assassination.

Fuck it.
digby | 04.25.08 - 3:42 pm

Bravo.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

This is an excerpt from the current #1 recommended diary at MyHRC titled “A Sobering Question: Is Obama Electable?” by pro-Hillary comment spammer TexasDarlin:

And Obama’s arrogance, most vividly displayed recently when he “flipped off” Hillary Clinton doesn’t help his image with average Americans either.  Along the same lines, today David Axelrod audaciously insulted white working class voters by declaring them irrelevant to a Democratic victory.  This uppity attitude likely explains why 32% of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania told a pollster that they would never vote for Barack Obama.

TexasDarlin, I’ve got a sobering question, too!  Why don’t you go fuck yourself?

MORE from peace-packed Puget Sound Island Girl:

Then there’s Rachel Maddow. What the heck happened to her and her Ph.D. in Political Science? I think that woman has truly lost her mind. She is so in love with Obama that I am beginning to wonder if she bats for both teams! Yeah. . . maybe I shouldn’t have said that----but I did. She obviously has some built-up hatred for Hillary. Don’t believe me----then listen to Dr. Maddow sometime or better yet catch her on TV. Ms. Maddow is nowhere near being neutral on this subject. Nope. . . she is deep in the Hillary hatred camp along with righty Rush!

As a matter of fact I blame all of the progressive radio hosts for the mess we are in. They didn’t stay neutral and keep this party unified. . . Oh no, they worked very hard to take down a lifelong Democrat. And for what or whom? For someone with not much to him to back up his words. But, oh he makes me feel so good. From what I hear a vibrator does the same thing, but I like the real thing thank you very much!

Shorter Puget Sound Island Girl: Rachel Maddow must love dick if she loves Obama.

Charming.  And someone might want to tell PSIG that the “lifelong Democrat” was a very active Republican until her junior year in college.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

In case you missed it, the latest knuckleheaded controversy “plaguing” the Obama campaign is ”wafflegate." The story, in a fucknutshell, is that Obama asked a reporter if he could finish his meal instead of answering a question.  That’s it, but the rabid anti-Obama Hillshills have worked themselves up into a lather over it. John Brown takes them all down with one simple paragraph:

Anyone who is currently pretending the waffle incident matters should immediately screw his or her fucking head on straight, apologize to every single person they’ve insulted by pretending this story is meaningful and then place their hand in a hot waffle iron for 30 seconds.

Bravo.

Monday, April 21, 2008

From the Reading Eagle:

Steve Elmarzouky got a surprise phone call as he waited in line Sunday at Reading High School to attend presidential candidate Barack Obama’s town hall meeting.

Obama was about to make an unscheduled stop at the Heidelberg Family Restaurant after leaving Lebanon.

Elmarzouky raced to his car and sped toward the restaurant he owns along Route 422 in Heidelberg Township.

On the way, he got a phone call from Obama.

Obama told him to slow down, that he would wait for Elmarzouky to arrive.

From Daily Kos (w/ videos):

Scranton is Hillary’s “third” home, outside of Arkansas and New York, it’s where her Grandfather is Buried.  The blue collar town of 72,000+ poured out Sunday night to see Caroline Kennedy, Bob Casey and Senator Barack Obama. 

Swampland pegs the crowd at 4,800, really quite a showing for a city widely suspected of potentially going 75%+ for Hillary…

From NBC 10 in Philadelphia:

A day before the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, it appears Hillary Rodham Clinton will fend off a late charge from Barack Obama, the latest SurveyUSA poll found.

The poll, the fifth conducted exclusively for NBC 10 and several other local television stations throughout the state, concluded that women will carry Clinton to victory, despite a surge for Obama in the southeast portion of the state.

According to the survey, Clinton will carry the symbolically important popular vote, but not by enough to gain material advantage in pledged delegates, according to the final SurveyUSA tracking poll for the primary.

The survey concluded that Clinton will finish with 50 percent, 6 percentage points ahead of Obama. The margin of sampling error is 3.8 percent.

Looking only at SurveyUSA numbers and ignoring the polls that have been released by 12 competing pollsters in Pennsylvania, Obama gained ground in a week when he was largely on defense and off-message. Last week, SurveyUSA had Clinton ahead by 14 points. Monday, in a poll conducted using the identical methodology, SurveyUSA found Clinton ahead by 6 points.

(More polling info here—not updated with this new SUSA result yet)

From Michael Moore:

I don’t get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn’t get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted.

So, if you live in Pennsylvania, can you do me a favor? Will you please cast my vote—and yours—on Tuesday for Senator Barack Obama?

Saturday, April 19, 2008

"That’s funyy,” a poem by Patrick Henry:

Thats funyy..
He ison CNN right now
      talking lived in PENN…
Its all,
      “She said, She said, ”
She is throwing th kithcen Sink,
She is throwing the Buffet”..
      etc etc..

‘Thats Ok” Thats OK..”

Oh YES…
      He’s the GREAT BLABBAMA…

He just go’s Blab….
      Blab…
            Blab…

"I can look out my Window” by Patrick Henry

I can look out my Window…
see all the Plum, Pear, Cherry Trees
      in full blossom..
I can see all the Daffodils in full Bloom…
and all the new growth on all
      My roser plants…
I can see Blue sky..
and Robins..

I also can look down the street and
see gas heading for Four dollars a gallon
      at the Pump..
and heard there is a growing food crisis in the world..
      and i worry about the very poor people
in Impoverished Countrys..
I am Not Bitter..
never Bitter..
But I have My Concerns..
but I know I am not alone..
because of all of you..

I too, Have a “DREAM”..
for America..
and good government…
and the American people UNITING
      because the TRUTH
has brought them together..

Friday, April 18, 2008

Why? After seeing this and this it struck me that watching these two blithering nincompoops leading the blogojeer for Hillary against their dull-eyed, drooling wingnut mentors will be awfully entertaining to watch.  It’ll be the ultimate fucktard cage match. I’ve even come up with a name for it just in case it goes down: Sad Hacks Beyond Thunderdumb.

Or ... The End of the Blogosphere As We Know It.

Nothing can survive an onslaught of that much unrelenting dueling douchebaggery.

(Hat tip to douglas in comments)

MORE: Good christ, the LA Times‘ Andrew Malcolm is rolling out this bullshit, too:

This is one of those political moments that really needs few words.

We’ll no doubt hear much more about this incident in coming days.

I can think of those “few words,” Malcolm: “fuck” and “you.” No finger necessary.

UPDATE: Here’s another angle (and clearly the best to refute this goofiness) shot by Ustream.  If you watch the full-screen version and scroll to the 20:50 mark, you can clearly see that he was scratching his face with two fingers.  And, yes, I feel embarrassed to be human even to have to bother posting this.

UPDATE: Kyle from Comments from Left Field asks an important question…

You know, the blogosphere was at least partly intended to keep the media from being silly. Who will come along to do the same for us?

UPDATE: moreperfectunion posted screenshots from the Ustream video at MyHRC....

We can has the sanities now? 

Oops, guess not.

I’m going to introduce a new game I came up with where everyone gets to pick wingnut blogger counterparts for the online Hillshills.  I think it’s pretty clear at this point that SusanUnPC’s wingnut counterpart is Pamela at Atlas Shrugs (all that’s missing are the vlogs). Feel free to play along in the comments.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Example #1 and example #2.