After reading panicked comments from Hillary West Virginia phonebankers at various anti-Obama blogs ("they think it’s over!") and John Cole’s canvassing report below, I think Hillary’s predicted margin of victory in West Virginia (30-40%) is vastly inflated. I’m going to go out on a limb and say she’ll only win by 13%:
Just finished walking my precinct, going door to door doing the GOTV for the Obama campaign, and I have to tell you, I am impressed with the level of organization. I was given a packet that included google maps, lists of supporters names, addresses, and how they are trending (strong supporter, undecided, etc.), literature to hand to people with the address of the precinct polling place and time the polls open, and literature to place on the door knob should they not be home.
I fully expect Hillary to win tomorrow, but I don’t think we are going to see a 40 point or whatever margin. At least I hope not. I can tell you this, however- Barack’s support here may not be as broad as Hillary’s, but it is deep. The people I spoke to were all folks like me- crawl-over-glass voters. They would, to a person, crawl over glass to pull the lever for Obama tomorrow. No one needed to be told when the polls were opening tomorrow, they knew. No one needed to be told where to go, they knew where they had to be tomorrow to vote.
I don’t know if this is simply a result of my lists being highly refined after weeks months of phone-banking, and I don’t know if there is a similar such level of organization or commitment on the Clinton side, but I can tell you that the people I visited were extremely motivated. On several occasions (three, to be exact), people were fielding phone calls from the Obama campaign while I was at the door. Additionally, I have personally received multiple calls from the Obama, yet have not received so much as a mailer from Clinton. As I am a newly registered Democrat with accurate phone and address on my registration, I thought at the very least the Clinton campaign would call or mail something.
MORE: Tonight I’m either going to look like the dumbest person in the blogosphere or the smartest. If I were you, I’d put money on “dumbest.”
We now have a new term: Leaving a Sugg trail. And I can understand the fear Wanda Gibson possesses. If I were a double bacon cheeseburger, I’d be fucking terrified of her.
I think it’s fairly logical to deduce from this morning’s appearance by John Edwards on Morning Joe that he voted for Obama and will eventually endorse him:
Another interesting quote from Edwards after they played him audio of Hillary’s “white Americans” comment:
I think it’s fine for Hillary to keep making the case for her. I think when that shifts to her contention about everything that’s supposed to be wrong with him--and I don’t agree with some of what she just said, by the way--but I think that then we’re doing damage instead of trying to be helpful.
But maybe the best part was when a visibly irked fill-in co-host Tiki Barber cut to the chase....
Race is going to play a part in this. I think what you were saying Mika, but you kind of walked around it, which I’ll say directly. Do you think that Hillary Clinton believes Barack Obama cannot win the presidency because he’s black?
I don’t know if this is a campaign-ender for Hillary, but it’s starting to look awfully Macaca-like when folks like Barber begin asking questions like that.
Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. Barring something totally unforeseen, that is the choice American voters will have before them in November. While we have not firmly decided upon a final day for tracking the Democratic race, it is coming soon.
There is a lot of talk that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is now fated to lose the Democratic nomination and should pull out of the race. We believe it is her right to stay in the fight and challenge Senator Barack Obama as long as she has the desire and the means to do so. That is the essence of the democratic process.
But we believe just as strongly that Mrs. Clinton will be making a terrible mistake — for herself, her party and for the nation — if she continues to press her candidacy through negative campaigning with disturbing racial undertones. We believe it would also be a terrible mistake if she launches a fight over the disqualified delegations from Florida and Michigan. [...]
She owes more to millions of Americans who have voted for her (and particularly to New Yorkers, who are entitled to expect that if she loses, she will return to the Senate with her influence and integrity intact). [...]
We endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and we know that she has a major contribution to make. But instead of discussing her strong ideas, Mrs. Clinton claimed in an interview with USA Today that she would be the better nominee because a recent poll showed that “Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again.” She added: “There’s a pattern emerging here.”
Yes, there is a pattern — a familiar and unpleasant one. It is up to Mrs. Clinton to change it if she hopes to have any shot at winning the nomination or preserving her integrity and her influence if she loses.
(Youngsters and/or non-movie enthusiasts look below the fold...)
Now, after this (which isn’t getting the attention it deserves), maybe someone should do a YouTube video with Hillary starring as Veruca Salt:
Michigan Democrats on Wednesday voted to back a plan that would give Clinton 69 delegates—four fewer than the 73 she gained by winning the state’s Jan. 15 primary. Obama would get 59 pledged delegates even though he took his name off the ballot, forcing his supporters to vote for Uncommitted.
Clinton campaign spokesman Isaac Baker said Thursday the campaign won’t support any proposal that gives Clinton fewer delegates than she earned by winning the primary. The New York senator trails Obama in the race for the nomination by about 150 delegates, and is seeking to close the gap with delegates from Florida and Michigan.
“This proposal does not honor the 600,000 votes that were cast in Michigan’s January primary. Those votes must be counted,” Baker said.
Michigan Democratic Party spokeswoman Elizabeth Kerr said Baker’s assertion that the 69-59 split doesn’t take the primary results into account is incorrect.
“This proposal honors the January 15 results and takes into consideration the fact that Barack Obama’s name was not on the ballot,” she said. “We continue to think this a fair resolution to seating the delegates.”
“I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on,” [Hillary Clinton] said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article “that found how Sen. Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me.”
“There’s a pattern emerging here,” she said.
After that comment, here’s one pattern I’d love to see emerging to replace the Clinton campaign:
Seldom in American politics has the same side of a single party split into such distinct and acrimonious factions. As virtually identical as the two candidates are in their political positions, there is no longer any common cause left between Hillary lovers and Obama supporters. There is only a culture war of epic proportions, featuring some of the most unlikely and absurd combatants in the history of impassioned conflict. Ordinary suburban Americans, people who consider Tina Fey biting satire and whose only “fighting” experience has usually been against trans fats or hair loss, can now be seen running through the streets, screaming war calls like Maoist guerrillas in the jungles of Nepal.
And that’s not even the best of it. No one has done a better job of explaining the bug-eyed spit n’ spew anti-Obama lunacy you see on sites like No Quarter and HillaryIs44 than Taibbi does on page two. Just go read it.
RELATED: Taibbi’s new book The Great Derangement is out now. You can learn more about it here and find out if he’s doing a reading in your area (NYC—June 6th—Barnes & Noble Tribeca).
MORE: Regarding Clark as a potential VP choice for Obama, I’m not convinced. I think the economy is and will be a key factor in November (not one of Clark’s strong suits), so I’d rather see him as SecDef. I’m still leaning toward a current or former governor as VP (examples: Richardson, Sebelius or Rendell), but they all have negatives I’m still working through. I “get” why people are pushing Jim Webb, but I think Obama needs someone with a little more political experience. And I’m still fundamentally allergic to a Senator/Senator ticket, so that rules out Hillary and a few others.
BUT, let me reiterate something I’ve proposed here and elsewhere: John Edwards for Secretary of Labor. He could take a lackluster and undervalued cabinet position and, in these tough economic times, turn it into something special. It’s a no-brainer to me. I don’t understand why I’m the only person I’ve seen float the idea…
How much did they spend on advertising in Indiana and North Carolina compared to Obama?
If Hillary keeps this hopeless and ego-driven campaign lurching forward is the expectation that the Obama campaign will bail her out of debt when she finally (and inevitably) drops out?
“Senator Clinton gave the campaign a $5 million loan on April 11th, a $1 million loan on May 1st, and a $425,000 loan on May 5th,” [Hillary spokesperson Howard] Wolfson said, adding that she’d lent the campaign the money to keep pace with Obama’s spending on TV in Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina.
“The loans are a sign of Senator Clinton’s commitment to the race, to continuing the process, and to continuing to be competitive with Senator Obama on television and in other areas,” Wolfson said.
JOHN ROBERTS: Well, what about that Anne Lewis, Barack Obama is charging that this is a political gimmick? Where is this the legislation for this gas tax holiday that Senator Clinton has promised. It’s only three weeks now to Memorial Day.
ANN LEWIS, SR. ADVISER, CLINTON CAMPAIGN: Well, I would agree that it’s an example of leadership. Hillary Clinton says let’s take on the oil companies. You impose a windfall profits tax. You use that money to pay to make the difference so that you can suspend the federal gas tax and you make sure with the Federal Trade Commission that those profits are passed on to the consumers.
Just found this on YouTube from a Hillary supporter. It’s called “Barack Obama Is The Next Adolf Hitler”:
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Clinton’s Democratic party. Please don’t mind the turds in the punchbowl.
RELATED: This is probably a good place to mention that it’s been nearly a month since I pointed out that Taylor Marsh was running an approved ad on her site for a book comparing Obama to Mussolini and that ad is still running on her site today. Here’s another reminder that you might want to email Sean-Paul Kelly from The Agonist (seanpaul-at-agonist.org) who runs the Advertise Liberally hive at BlogAds and ask him why Taylor is still part of the network.
Expert Analyst on Clinton/Obama Political Scene Available for Interviews and Guest Appearances
National blog reporter, journalist and talk radio personality tackles provocative, complex and controversial election-year issues
FLORHAM PARK, N.J., May 5 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/—Taylor Marsh, a Clinton supporter who maintains the major blog site for Clinton fans, is
available for commentary and expert analysis on all election-year topics. She will be in Washington, D.C. on May 5, 6 and 7, 2008 for guest
appearances originating in Washington. Thereafter, Marsh is available via satellite or phone interviews from Los Angeles and Las Vegas.
Marsh is not afraid to tackle topics others shy away from. Among the many current issues she can discuss with clarity and astute reasoning are:
—Why Clinton can still win
—If Obama is the nominee, will Clinton supporters not vote, or will they become McCain Democrats?
—Media (and blog) coverage of Clinton, and why she and Obama are turning to Fox News Channel
Background
A former Miss Missouri in the Miss America pageant and Broadway performer, Taylor Marsh is a talk radio personality (her radio show streams daily online), national blog reporter and author who’s been a consistent political, social and cultural force on TV and radio for over 15 years. She focuses on political commentary, foreign policy and national security issues, but is a respected analyst on all things political as she turns to the 2008 elections with some of the best candidate and election commentary available. Her relationship and cultural expertise, with research and experience to back it up, rivals anyone. Her political expertise includes committed study and research into foreign affairs and military issues that has made her one of the few women talking about complex, international subjects.
On the web since 1996, Marsh shifted to blogging and blog reporting in late 2005, where her presence and impact have been explosive, though nothing prepared her for the Hillary hatred that would be unleashed in her direction in the 2008 primary season. [...]
Taylor was set to appear on The Race w/ Adrienne Mitchell, on XM channel 130 starting between 8:30 and 8:45 ET tonight. Unfortunately, it had to be bumped in favor of a terrific election eve speech from our future Madame President. Understandable.
But do not despair… Taylor has already been invited to appear again very soon, so stay tuned…
